Uncertainty analyais, based on Differential Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo Analysis, has been used in servaral research projects in order to estimate reliability of results, especially inempirical validation-based projects where both meassured and predicted uncertainty bands need to be evaluated. Howerver, such analyuses have been time-consuming, involving either repetitive manual changing of the input parameters followed by asimulation run, or involving the writing of specific programs to automate the process. Their use has, in consequence, been restricted. This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in the predication from thermal simulation programs. It then describes how uncertainty analysis has been incorporated into the thermal simulation program ESP-r, Ana example of its application is given.

• mathematics: error analysis, uncertainty analysis : for thermal analysis
• mathematics: Monte Carlo simulation method : thermal analysis, ESP-r
• risk analysis
• thermal analysis and performance : error analysi, uncertainty analysis

1. On the use of simulation in the design of embedded energy systems  

1. Application of data mining techniques for building simulation performance prediction
2. Building-integrated photovoltaic and thermal applications in a subtropical hotel building
3. Simulation support for performance assessment of building components