Dysfunctional implications of narrow window theory: Variability in the intuitive assessment of correlation
Cahan, S. and Mora, Y.
2007 Cognition, 105(1): 47-64
Narrow Window theory; Intuitive correlation estimation; Sample size; Sampling distribution of r; Working memory capacity; Individual differences
Cahan, S. and Mora, Y., (2007), "Dysfunctional implications of narrow window theory: Variability in the intuitive assessment of correlation", Cognition, 105(1): 47-64.
Abstract:
Narrow Window theory, suggested by Y. Kareev ten years ago, has so far focused on one central implication of the limited capacity of working memory on intuitive correlation estimation, namely, overestimation of the distal population correlation. This paper points to additional and perhaps more dramatic implications due to the large dispersion of intuitive estimates: (a) large estimation errors, possibly causing overestimation of negligible ¦Ñs, misses of strong ¦Ñs, and distorted hierarchies of the ¦Ñs between different pairs of variables; and (b) large interpersonal differences in the estimation of any given ¦Ñ and highly incongruent hierarchies of estimated correlations between different pairs of variables. These implications impede both individuals' adaptation to the empirical world and communication among themselves.
