| IEA global energy report predicts rising electricity demand, share of renewable; PV generation to increase to 2% of global electricity generation
In November 2010 the International Energy Agency (IEA, Paris, France) released its "World Energy Outlook 2010", predicting increases in the use of solar power and other renewable energy sources in coming decades, although not sufficient to replace fossil fuels as primary sources of global power. The report includes projections of demand, production, trade and investment among all energy sources to 2035, emphasizing the ongoing central role of policy in renewable energy development, and offers three scenarios based upon the aggressiveness of policies implemented by nations.
The Copenhagen Accord and the agreement among G20 countries to phase out subsidies are important steps forward. But, these moves still fall a very long way short of what is required to set us on the path to a truly sustainable energy system", said IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka at the release of the report. "The energy world is facing unprecedented uncertainty. We need to use energy more efficiently and we need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels by adopting technologies that leave a much smaller carbon footprint."
Report based on three policy scenarios
The report's predictions for energy demand and generation are based on three separate scenarios. The primary scenario is based upon the drafting and implementation of new, more aggressive policies to encourage changes in energy use including increasing renewable energy generation (called "new policies"). A second scenario is based upon policies that would put the member nations on a path to reach the goals of the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, and the final scenario forecasts energy production and use under an unchanged policy environment.
In all three scenarios, certain assumptions remain, such as that energy use will increase, driven by developing nations, most notably China. The report notes that China surpassed the United States as the world's largest consumer of energy in 2009, and projects that electricity demand in China could triple between 2010 and 2035.
Fossil fuel generation to decline, PV generation to increase to 2% of global electricity generation
In the "new policies" scenario, fossil fuels will decrease from 68% of total generation to 55%, with coal falling from 41% to 32% of electricity generation. Under such a scenario renewable energy usage increases from 19% to roughly one-third of total electricity generation, led by hydropower and wind. The report estimates that while solar photovoltaic (PV) generation has been increasing rapidly, it will reach a mere 2% of global electricity generation by 2035.
In May 2010 the IEA had stated that it was possible for the world to receive 11% of its generation from PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) by 2050. However, in "World Energy Outlook 2010" the IEA states that while the Middle East and North Africa region holds "enormous" promise for solar, that market, technical and political challenges in the region need to be overcome before this can be developed.
Report states that continued policy, financial support will be necessary for renewables
The report states that these increases in renewable generation will continue to be dependent upon both favorable policies and financial support for the entire period to 2035, estimating that a cumulative global investment of USD$5.7 trillion will be necessary to meet these goals. Such investment will mean government investments in renewables of USD$131 billion per year by 2035, as compared to the USD$37 billion invested in 2009. However, while predicting that the overall scale of government support will increase, falling prices for renewable generation will mean that this support will go farther, with financial support falling from USD$55 to USD$23 per MW-hour.
The report also advocates for the removal of "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies, noting that such subsidies continue to distort energy usage patterns. | 